Many unknowns are known unknowns

Time management masters plan for the not-really-unexpected

Several decades ago, then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld made the observation that, in war, things fall into several categories. There are the known knowns — the things we know we know. There are also known unknowns — “that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.” He also noted that there are unknown unknowns — “the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

He was making a point about the last category, but I’ve always thought that the middle category — the known unknowns — is most interesting from a time management perspective.

In life, a lot of ordinary stress and excuses come back to the idea that something unexpected came up. People are late to things that occur at 6 p.m. across town and then note that there was traffic. A project gets derailed over the winter because of staff absences due to illnesses. Or a deadline is missed because a snowstorm keeps everyone from the office.

Who would have thought?

But these events aren’t actually unexpected at all. There is almost always traffic during rush hour. People get sick over the winter. If you live in a place where it rains and snows, you will need to deal with the possibility of rain and snow. Traffic, illnesses, and weather are all known unknowns. You may not know exactly when they’ll hit — some Tuesdays at 6 p.m. are better than others, and the flu might hit your community in January instead of December — but they will probably happen at some point. They are known unknowns.

Of course there are truly unknown unknowns. Most run-of-the-mill plans cannot reasonably be expected to include a global pandemic that shuts things down for a year. But in life, you can and should try to prepare for the known unknowns in the 10th-90th percentile of likelihood. Anyone can make a perfect schedule. True time management masters make a resilient schedule, understanding that a great many unknowns are actually known unknowns that can be planned for.

Create your back-up plans

So, for anything that matters, take some time to think through what might go wrong. What might prevent you from getting to the office to deliver a major presentation to the CEO on time? For various people, the likely culprits might be a childcare snafu, a transportation issue, or a weather problem depending on the location and time of year. Think about how you might deal with these. If your normal childcare is suddenly not available, do you have a back-up plan? Could your spouse or another relative cover in a pinch? You might confirm that your spouse hasn’t scheduled anything unmissable on the big day, just in case. On the car front, you might think through how you’d take Uber if you had a problem, or think through alternate routes in case there was an accident on the highway.

As for weather, you might have a back-up plan to present virtually if the office would be shut down but the CEO was still available. One silver lining of Covid and the pivot to remote and hybrid work is that it forced people to think through different work arrangements. It turns out that for a lot of knowledge work, being in the office is a separate concept from getting work done. Work flows became more resilient.

In any case, when you think about the known unknowns, you can make plans to deal with them. Hopefully you won’t have to deal with them, but knowing you can will give you a lot more confidence in your schedule. You’ll feel confident agreeing to a client’s deadline, because you’ve built in space to absorb those staff sick days that are bound to happen. That’s not an unknown unknown — it’s pretty likely to occur at some point. If not, amazing. You’ll be done early. But probably you’ll be glad to have the space. That’s what time management masters know.

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